martes, 11 de julio de 2017

APPEASEMENT AND ACQUIESCENCE


Image result for picture of Trump and Kim Jong Un

The west is known for its inveterate preference for kicking the can further down the road. Politicians are more concerned about their so called legacy, and of late about their handsomely paid speeches than about the future of their countries and the interests of the average people; as relief pitchers they have one mission and one mission only: to "kill" a couple of innings, the rest is irrelevant. That's how we got to where we are regarding the rogue state of North Korea; Clinton, Bush and Obama did little or nothing to avoid this disaster and now Mr Trump, who for many is the least qualified of our presidents, has been given the ball with no outs and the opposite team with all bases loaded. There's no need to draw any red lines since the Korean madman has already passed them all; he's capable of reaching the continental territory of the United States of America at least hypothetically. What are the options for our government?

1- Press all Chinese banks and institutions with any sort of ties with North Korea; which could in turn lead to an economic "war" with China, the communist nation that happens to be our major foreign creditor. Doesn't look too good.

2- Shipping back nuclear war heads to South Korea and convince Japan to request nuclear weapons. That could upset the balance between the old and the new guard of the Chinese nomenclature in favor of the latter which supposedly considers the embarrassing neighbor to be a pain rather than an asset. The actual shipping wouldn't have to take place; chances are that the mere request from Japan forces China to come back to its senses. But what if the old fellows in Beijing call our bluff and we end up arming Japan and thus triggering an arms race in the Pacific? 

3- Delaying any measures against China's rigging of the market and manipulation of its currency for a few years in exchange for some help with North Korea; but just how much help would that buy us and how effective and enduring would such help be?

4- Carrying out a "surgical" attack on the madman's quarters eliminating him and his close aides. American spends billions of tax payer's dollars to supposedly develop our intelligence capabilities; we the people have tacitly given up on our privacy in order to be safe; it is time that the government shows us that our decision was the right one. If the most powerful nation on earth cannot get rid of Kim Jong Un without men on the ground then we have a problem. But even if we manage to neutralize the Korean dictator chances are the rest of the bureaucracy reacts in a destabilizing manner.

The notion of the Chinese persuading the North Koreans to give up their nuclear weapons is unrealistic; Kim only has to look at Libya to be ominously reminded that the West is not able to keep its word. Our record is so poor that only a fool would trust us.

This is one of those cases where all options are lousy options; but one thing is certain: a nuclear North Korea with ICBMs capable of reaching our west coast is a game changer and we must not hesitate to take harsh measures. Time's up and we can't kick the can any further because the road ends here.

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