DYNAMICS OF A NASTY RACE

It's open season in Washington and all candidates are on election mode (including the incumbent). The Iowa caucus caught everyone off guard launching Rick Santorum to the forefront of American politics, placing him in a minus eight vote second place, and making Michele Bachmann, of all contenders, the first casualty of the 2012 race for the GOP nomination.

In the next few weeks, perhaps even days, we will see Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul drop out and choose to endorse one of the remaining candidates; Huntsman will follow a few days later having his race started in NH. Santorum can put up a fight in South Carolina (New Hampshire seems to be a done deal for Romney) and appeal to the right of the Republican Party; however, only a miracle would give him the kind of money needed to beat the former governor of Massachusetts in the rest of the states; moreover, while undoubtedly suffering from a serious authenticity problem, Romney , on the other hand, is the kind of moderate politician that would appeal to the independents and democrats to the right of Barack Obama and, in my view, the only in a position to take a serious shot at ultimately unseating the current tenant at Pennsylvania 1600.

If my predictions prove to be accurate the road to the White House would still be an uphill battle for Mitt Romney because:
1- The economy can only improve, if only a little.
2-  Unemployment seems to have touched bottom and can only diminish.
3-  An incumbent president is very unlikely to lose an election unless some sort of tragedy takes place.
4-  The powers that be, for all of Obama's unkept promises and arbitrary handling of political affairs, do not appear to be fed up with the president.
5-  Republicans, particularly in Congress, have failed to convey a message of success and positive thinking and therefore have not captivated the imagination of the American people.

All in all, I think this will be a Mitt Ronmey v.s Barack Obama race for the White House with 40% chances of winning for the challenger and 60% for the president. Time will tell