We all cheered and chanted when the Wall fell. One Soviet satellite after another ran away from the communist block; most of us hoped Cuba would follow soon. But it didn't. Castro moved back to denial mode and circled the wagons around whichever theoretical thread had remained hidden under the avalanche of deadwood ideology and broken promises that his social engineering experiment had come to be; he shifted the rattling gears of his aging chimera to first and forced the whole nation (or what was left of it) to an extenuating uphill march. Pundits gave him months, days, even hours of survival, but he managed, albeit precariously, to keep his head above water. The paternalistic rhetoric was tossed and in its place one could only feel the unnerving vibes of impatience. El Comandante had no time for nonsense, money was tight, and his grip on power was loosening. Some sources claim that when it was clear that Gorbachev meant business in his quest for a new Soviet Union and the de-ideologization of socialism, his Cuban customer quickly prepared the escape route. When all seemed lost Hugo Chavez won the elections in Venezuela and the old dictator had his breather. Cuba's economy reached rock bottom and started a slow recovery. The Cuban regime had just bought some twenty more years worth of time. No more long term planning or promising pamphlets. The Party platform consisted now of the improvising policy of one day at a time.
Suddenly Fidel Castro fell ill and hell broke lose. Cuban exiles, as usual, celebrated too soon. With his proverbial skills to ruin things, the aging dictator postponed his own death and decided he wouldn't leave just yet. His younger brother, jumped at the chance and started a slow, constant and irreversible purge of all "cadres" Fidel; one by one, at times several at a time, he got rid of his brother's proteges and filled the vacancies with his own people. If in the wake of General Ochoa's cause celebre Raul Castro had already dismantled the Ministry of Interior and severed its control of economic activities, giving his ministry, that of the Armed Forces, control over a huge chunk of the tourism sector; now, after a gradual process of subordination of the economic activity to his newly appointed Board of military businessmen the new "president" decided to explore his own brand of communism: A.K.A survival. Treading with tentative steps, the younger Castro, apparently sensitive to the wilting leaves falling off his brother's picturesque military ranks, secretly defined what appears to be his legacy: to secure a peaceful death for himself and grant his family's access to incalculable amounts of wealth embezzled here and there and conveniently coded in western bank accounts.
His goal is a gradual return to the situation that prevailed in the 50s minus Batista; a new rule forces Cuban leaders to a drastic reduction of their hold to power, which puts Raul and several other apparatchiks on the way out within the next four years. The infamous white card, their brand of exit visa, was abandoned virtually allowing Cubans to leave the island with little bureaucratic hurdles. Several "tepid" laws have been passed to liberalize areas of the service economy with no serious repercussion on the ownership of basic production means, more of a Mom and Pop business that does not dent the government's stubborn grip on ownership, but allows the regime a nod of approval from liberal academics in the west. Socially, the island has opened itself to religion and homosexuality ending a 40 year old quest for purity that had made Cuba one of the most rigid societies in the western hemisphere; but the "changes" do not seem to stop there. For the first time, the days of the one party system seem to be nearing an end. A differentiation between party system and party rule must be made though, since I don't envision a full fledged western democracy in the island any time soon.
The word of the day is "normalization", tacitly admitting that the current status quo is far from normal, but banking on its inherent psychology of fear to make this evolution drag on for at least another five years, enough for the old guard to finally kick the bucket and for its offsprings to secure the cookie jar. Upon its return to the Capitol, currently undergoing a face lift, the Cuban National Assembly may well become a parliament with two or more mildly opposing parties. The General has four years to soften the incipient domestic opposition and groom the "rebels" from within the ranks of the hitherto all mighty Communist Party; the circulation of briefcases full of US currency to continue to achieve unanimity cannot be ruled out. He has it all figured out and he knows both the EU and the US will rush to support his move. The next few years are likely to feature a reply of the shameful San Juan Hill episode and once again the average Cuban will have no say as to the type of country he or she will live in; whichever arrangements may be reached are to be negotiated behind closed doors and drafted in the intricate lexicon of demagogic jargon. The new normal will rise from the sum of all things dreaded, but the people will be too busy making ends meet to notice.
Contrary to what some may think, this option although morally abhorrent, has its bright side. While it perpetuates the domination of the same few families, it also provides continuity in the functioning of the state. The plan, however, is far from perfect since it contains several volatile variables: the rapidly deteriorating political situation in Venezuela and Mr. Maduro's growing unpopularity within his own movement. Cuba's evident failure to improve the living standards of its people. An increase in the boldness of protests and events organized by the those who openly challenge that nation's political system. On the other hand, the "new" generation of leaders may emulate Gorbachev's dismissal of Andrei Gromiko in the late 80s. Our time came and went; no use running after it and whether the island's future may still be salvaged remains to be seen.
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